An analysis of COVID-19 outbreaks in schools in South and Southwestern United States using open-source data

Abstract

The reopening of schools for the 2020 fall academic session in the United States was linked to many cases of COVID-19 infection. This analysis utilized a dataset of school-related outbreaks created by National Education Association (NEA) to study attack rates and COVID-19 trends in schools located in the south and southwestern regions of the United States. The highest attack rate was observed in Mississippi for both students and teachers. In most states, the attack rate was higher for students in high schools than elementary schools, whereas the reverse was true for teachers. Most outbreaks had fewer than five cases, with only a small number of outbreaks that involved more than 10 cases in the duration under study. Outbreak size was found to be the highest in the state of Texas. Epidemic curves of new cases in most of these states showed features of a propagated outbreak. In some states, a rise in school-related cases coincided with rise in cases in the state. Findings related to size and pattern of school outbreaks may have significant implications for defining public health policies related to school functioning during infectious disease outbreaks.